Project-starts, main contract awards and detailed planning approvals all decreased against the previous year.
Totalling £982m, work starting on-site in Scotland fell 41 per cent during the three months to July and remained 36 per cent lower than a year ago. Underlying project-starts (less than £100m in value) performed poorly, having decreased 23 per cent against the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis as well as 32 per cent compared with a year earlier to total £982m No major projects (£100m or more) commenced on-site during the period, a decrease against the preceding three months and previous year.
Main contract awards in Scotland added up to £2.47bn, a 22 per cent increase compared with the preceding three months to stand 46 per cent lower than a year ago. Underlying contract awards, at £1.22bn, decreased by 17 per cent against preceding three months and fell 23 per cent against the previous year. Major contract awards totalled £1.25bn during the period, a 485 per cent increase against the preceding three months but a 58 per cent decrease against the previous year.
Adding up to £1.69bn, detailed planning approvals in Scotland decreased 48 per cent against the preceding three months to stand 12 per cent down against the previous year. Major approvals decreased 77 per cent against the preceding three months and decreased 36 per cent against the previous year to total £327m. Underlying project approvals fell 17 per cent (SA) against the preceding three months decreased by three per cent on a year ago.
Sector analysis: project starts
Private housing was the most active sector in Scotland for project-starts during the three months to July, accounting for 35 per cent of the total value. Despite this, the sector experienced a 53 per cent decrease against the previous year to total £343m. Social housing experienced a 10 per cent slump on a year ago, bringing the total value down to £173m, an 18 per cent share of all project-starts in Scotland.
In contrast, education experienced a 63 per cent growth against the previous year, totalling £166m, the sector accounted for 17 per cent of the total value, making it the third most active sector in Scotland for project-starts. Industrial was another growth area, here the value of project-starts grew 37 per cent against the previous year to total £62m, a six per cent share of the total.
Value of project starts in Scotland during the three months to July 2023 by sector
|Sector||Value of Project-Starts (£m)||Change on previous year||Change on two years ago||%Share|
|Hotel & Leisure||56||-42%||-25%||6%|
|Community & Amenity||22||-67%||130%||2%|
Sector analysis: detailed planning approvals
Private housing accounted for the greatest proportion of detailed planning approvals (64 per cent) during the three months to July with the value adding up to £1.08bn. Private housing approvals increased by 166 per cent against the previous year. In contrast, social housing experienced a weaker period, with the value of project approvals decreasing 80 per cent compared to 2022 levels to total £16m, a one per cent share of the total value.
At £269m, the industrial sector fell 52 per cent on 2022 levels to account for 16 per cent of the total value. Industrial accounted for the second greatest proportion of planning approvals. Community & amenity experienced the sharpest decrease of any sector, with the value of approvals falling 98 per cent to total £4m.
Value of project approvals in Scotland during the three months to July 2023 by sector
|Sector||Value of Project-Approvals (£m)||Change on previous year||Change on two years ago||%Share|
|Hotel & Leisure||68||-29%||36%||4%|
|Community & Amenity||4||-98%||-67%||0%|
Forecast construction starts for Scotland
|Underlying project-starts (£m)||Change on previous year|
|Quarter 1, 2021||1,643||2%|
|Quarter 2, 2021||1,463||127%|
|Quarter 3, 2021||1,303||-6%|
|Quarter 4, 2021||1,049||-2%|
|Quarter 1, 2022||1,595||-3%|
|Quarter 2, 2022||1,705||17%|
|Quarter 3, 2022||1,562||20%|
|Quarter 4, 2022||1,229||17%|
|Quarter 1, 2023||1,650||3%|
|Quarter 2, 2023 f||1,113||-35%|
|Quarter 3, 2023 f||1,300||-17%|
|Quarter 4, 2023 f||1,161||-6%|
|Quarter 1, 2024 f||1,572||-5%|
|Quarter 2, 2024 f||1,433||29%|
|Quarter 3, 2024 f||1,495||15%|
|Quarter 4, 2024 f||1,188||2%|