As the largest carbon emitter globally, China needs to aim for at least a 30% CO2 emissions reduction by 2035 in its new climate targets if the world has a chance to meet the Paris Agreement goals, Finland-based think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said in a report on Thursday.
China, and other nations, must submit to the UN by February 2025 their new national climate plans, the so-called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as required by the Paris Agreement.
The trajectory of China’s emissions and emissions reductions would be crucial to determine whether the world as a whole would meet the Paris Agreement goals of curbing global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
China is currently responsible for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and has accounted for 90% of the growth in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, CREA notes.
The new climate plan will be the first time China sets an actual emission reduction goal. So far, the world’s biggest polluter has only pledged to have its emissions peak before 2030.
As a major emissions source, China must set “a strong but achievable target of reducing emissions by at least 30% by 2035” if it is to help the world achieve the Paris Agreement goals, CREA said.
China can achieve at least 30% CO2 emission reductions overall by 2035 compared to 2023, but an absolute emission reduction target set by the central government would be critical to achieving this reduction, the think tank added.
Emissions from electricity must drop by at least 30% with an expected capacity of 5,000 GW of renewables by 2035, while emissions from industry should decrease by more than 25%, mostly driven by emission reductions from the steel sector, according to CREA’s findings.
Since 2013, China has been responsible for over 40% of the annual additions to global renewable energy capacity. Last year, China’s newly installed renewables capacity accounted for more than half of the world’s total.
China, however, has yet to see its carbon dioxide emissions peak.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
